To Buy or Not to Buy

I have been looking at buying this condo in my building because it is super cheap. It is listed for $49,000 which means I can almost pay cash for it. Obviously it needs a lot of work. The fridge may be the only thing I will keep. The realtor said that I could really make the place nice with $5,000, but with the things I want to do to the place, it will probably be more like $10,000-$20,000 before I am satisfied. I just know I don't have the skills I need to do it myself. A new tile floor alone will set me back at least $3,000.

I know what the potential of this space is. The place I am renting shows me how cute it can look. I can also take a loan from my 401K to pay for the remodel.

 There is currently a renter living there with her son. Her mother rents the apartment across the hall. She pays $1,000/month rent, which is good because I am locked in a lease until the end of January. I figure that I can buy the place and with the HOA/maintenance fees and paying back my 401 K I will still come out with $100 to spare.

There are a few things keeping me from jumping in. One is that the HOA/maintenance fees are $640/month. I am told that this is because the building was neglected for many years. The foundation of the building had to be worked on, the windows and the roof were replaced. Within the next two years the sewer system will need to be replaced. I am told that will cost about $1,000,000 which is approximately $7,500/unit.

What I am trying to figure out is how long the maintenance fees are going to be this high. I am also trying to figure out how in debt they are and how much more they plan to increase their reserves for future repairs. All of this information will help me understand the true cost of buying this place.

The estimate for this place on Zillow is $123,000, which could mean I am getting the deal of a lifetime, or I could just lose all my money on the place. On one hand paying $640/month is a steal when you consider that I am paying $1400 right now just to rent but if I have to pay back my 401k I will actually be paying between $800-$1,000. I will still save $400-$600/month and not have all the restrictions that my landlady currently has me living with.

There are some questions that I can't answer right now. Here is my list...

How long will I live here and will I save enough money to make it worth paying all the realtor fees and closing costs when I get ready to sell?

Will I be too busy with school to manage a rental and a remodel? (I'll probably start back to school May 1st.)

Will there be a tsunami that will rip the roof off (this unit is on the top floor) and suck me out will all my stuff?

Will the financial crisis come that some are predicting and what will that do to my investment?

Will Russia drop a bomb on us and blow the place up because Obama has made us so vulnerable?

Will Jesus come because the world is so wicked right now?

I guess through all this analysis, the place is looking pretty good. I just need to get into the financial documents and pray about it.